Todd’s bio on Twitter says he’s an audit and turn-around specialist, IT and High Tech Manufacturing specialist, Author, speaker and blogger. I must say I’m most familiar with Todd as a blogger and haven’t read his books or heard him speak. He has some very interesting perspectives and a pretty prolific Tweeter, something I don’t do a lot of myself. Tweeting must be a learned talent, which I’m still working to fully understand its value.
One of Todd’s recent blogs “Good Estimates Only Have a 50% Chance of Being Made” ( http://ecaminc.com/index.php/blog/59-generalblog/217-2010-09-13) is an interesting discussion of why, from a purely theoretically perspective, project estimates only have a 50% chance of being met. His argument is that we shouldn’t assign positive or negative assessments to meeting individual estimates. This aligns with my experience that the law of large numbers argues that things balance out in the end. My experience is and was that it’s the task you forget to estimate that are the problem as they represent a 100% negative variance to plan.
In a comment to this specific blog, Peter Kretzsman (someone who will definitely make my who’s worth following list) points out “An IT organization which fails to deliver to expectations half of the time, as you suggest, will be regarded as hopelessly unreliable and flaky, all mathematical protestations aside”. These types of discussions, which I would really like to encourage, are where real learning takes place. Two points emerge. First, people who prepare and use estimates need to understand they are most like wrong and that their estimates need to be updated as more is learned about the project and second, what’s really important is how estimates are communicated.
Here is Todd’s information to add to your list of “Who’s Worth Following”:
• Twitter – @ BackFromRed
• Facebook – Todd C. Williams
• Web Site – http://ecaminc.com/index.php
• Blog Site – http://ecaminc.com/index.php/blog
Let me know if you think this is a valuable service and helps you define a set of useful people to follow on the social media of your choice. Also, if you think of someone I should add to the list let me know.
Footnote – Todd and I just connected today through a relationship with Michael Krigsman and his company Asuret. It’s a very small world.
William A. Crowell
Facebook: William A Crowell
LinkedIn: Bill Crowell